« Last post by Party Monkey on January 26, 2015, 12:07:59 AM »
Okay, so I've caught up now with all of the FOI feedback that 'Maurice' has received to date.
A number of forces stress that their data is 'unique' and should not be used for comparative purposes. Other forces have only partly completed the information request either due to time, cost or system limiting issues. One thing that did surprise me is that the forces use different data capture systems.
I've spotted a few errors in the data and some potential misinterpretations too, so I think it's important to stress that the info received is being used to arrive at national annual trends and that's what I'll concentrate on. Not a comparison by force. However, if anyone wants to evaluate the individual force data for their own curiosity then that's up to them.
I need to do a bit of cross checking to ensure my own data entry accuracy so consider this all work in progress but....
• 16 of 44 forces have replied so far. One force has refused to provide the information as they suspect that Maurice is not acting under his real name. Not unreasonable and I guess that's down to him to challenge/verify in the first instance. Worse case, if he gets nowhere, I'll ask the force for the info.
• To date, 'Defenders' (suspect may be the odd Series or two in the stats) reported stolen
2012 : 318
2013 : 435 (up by 37%)
2014 : 310 (down by 29%)
Yes, you read it right, the current stats suggest Defender thefts fell 2014 v 2013. Now, Maurice made his FOI request in early Jan'15. Could it be that all the 2014 theft data wasn't on the system? I'm keen to see if the outstanding force replies confirm this suspected trend
• Recovery rates have been reasonably steady in the 20-25% range. Better than I was expecting generally.
• 60-70% of the reported thefts did not specify the wheelbase. As expected, when reported, the 90 was most commonly stolen on a roughly 2:1 ratio with the 110. 130 hardly registering.
• Ages of vehicles is proving tricky as some forces cannot provide the data (so far, over 70% of the thefts had no vehicle age recorded). We see on here that Tdi Defenders are the most reported, with Td5's next.and that seems to tie in with the stats so far...
21-25 years old : 4% ) The 16-25 years bracket I think would be about right for a Tdi engine
16-20 years old : 8% )
11-15 years old : 6% Td5's, I think ran 1998-2006, so that puts them in age range 6 - 16 years over the assessment period.
• Not much point in dwelling on colour really. Green and Blue most reported and probably due to the fact that Green & Blue are the most prevalent colours, particularly on the older vehicles. No real surprises there.
• Arrest rates per theft are slightly skewed as multiple arrests occurred around one vehicle (in one instance 5 arrested on one vehicle!). Simply applying the number of arrests vs number of vehicles we get.
2012 : 7%
2013 : 11-12%
2014 : 8%
So, this just an early update roughly one third of the way in. When the forces replies are complete, I do plan to compare the 'trends' we get from this cumulative data to our own info on LandyWatch.